Arabica coffee futures dropped below $3.10 per pound on Friday, marking their lowest level since December 2024 and capping their sharpest weekly decline in nearly seven months. The drop extended a broader downtrend, with prices falling around 17% over the past three months. The selloff has been driven by strong harvest progress in Brazil and expectations of abundant global supply, particularly from top producers like Vietnam. Weather conditions have remained favorable, with no major frost threats in key growing areas. At the same time, rising ICE exchange inventories are reinforcing perceptions of comfortable stock levels. As geopolitical and speculative influences wane, the market is shifting its focus back to supply fundamentals, which continue to exert downward pressure on prices.

Arabica Coffee Hits 6-Month Low as Supply Outlook Improves

Brent crude oil futures were barely changed, settling at $67.8 per barrel on Friday, but posted their sharpest weekly declines in years as geopolitical risk premiums faded. The market had surged above USD 80 during the Iran-Israel conflict then easing after President Trump announced a ceasefire, soothing fears of supply disruptions from the region. Since then, Trump has sent mixed signals about his pressure campaign on Iran’s oil revenues, admitting US sanctions have done little to stop China’s purchases. Still, Brent finished the week down 12%, its worst since August 2022 Market is refocusing on fundamentals, including upcoming OPEC+ decisions and signs of strengthening summer demand. Inventory data showing strong draws in distillates and signs of rising refinery activity also supported prices. Meanwhile, China’s Iranian crude imports hit a record high in June, further influencing global supply dynamics.

Brent Crude Posts Sharpest Weekly Loss Since 2022

WTI crude oil futures rose by 0.4% to settle at $65.5 per barrel on Friday, but posted their sharpest weekly declines in years as geopolitical risk premiums faded. The market had surged above USD 80 during the Iran-Israel conflict then easing after President Trump announced a ceasefire, soothing fears of supply disruptions from the region. Since then, Trump has sent mixed signals about his pressure campaign on Iran’s oil revenues, admitting US sanctions have done little to stop China’s purchases. Still, WTI crude fell 11% on the week, the steepest drop since March 2023. Market is refocusing on fundamentals, including upcoming OPEC+ decisions and signs of strengthening summer demand. Inventory data showing strong draws in distillates and signs of rising refinery activity also supported prices. Meanwhile, China’s Iranian crude imports hit a record high in June, further influencing global supply dynamics.

WTI Crude Posts Steep Weekly Drop Despite Friday Rebound

Palladium decreased to a 9-week low of 911.50 USD/t.oz. Over the past 4 weeks, Palladium gained 3.07%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 2.8%.

Palladium Hits 9-week Low

Canola decreased to a 7-week low of 680.40 CAD/T. Over the past 4 weeks, Canola lost 4.78%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 8.58%.

Canola Hits 7-week Low

Palladium decreased 13.84% to 990 USD/t.oz

Palladium is down by 13.84%

Silver dropped to $31.2 per ounce, paring the rally that topped at the 13-year high of $37.3 on June 18th, tracking the pullback for other precious metals as lower demand for safety outweighed support from the dovish Fed outlook. Israel and Iran extended so far maintained the fragile ceasefire, easing geopolitical concerns in the Middle East. Also, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick noted that the US struck a trade deal with China and signaled that more deals are incoming. Still, silver held most of its rally for the month as traders moved to price multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year amid contractions in personal income, personal spending, and a downward revision the first-quarter GDP. The metal has significantly outperformed gold in June, rising roughly 11% compared to gold’s flat performance.

Silver Eases from 13-Year High

Soybean futures edged higher, topping nearly $10.28 per bushel, as they recovered slightly from recent two-month lows amid improved global sentiment driven by progress in US-China trade talks and easing tensions in the Middle East. However, gains were capped by favorable growing conditions in the US Midwest, where warm weather and rainfall have supported strong crop development. Warm weather and rains have created ideal growing conditions for soybeans in the US Midwest, which will likely improve soil moisture further. In Brazil, farmers are estimated to have harvested a record soybean crop earlier this year. Meanwhile, a recent report showed soybean sales in Argentina doubled in the first 18 days of June to 4.71 million tons from a year earlier as farmers raced to close deals before a planned hike in export taxes on July 1. Traders now shift their focus to the upcoming USDA's crop progress and quarterly stocks reports due on June 30.

Soybeans Futures Bounce Back

US gasoline futures hovered below $2.10 per gallon, near three-week lows, as the Israel-Iran ceasefire eased fears of supply disruptions from a region supplying a third of global crude. Despite the geopolitical calm, gasoline demand in the US is surging as the summer driving season hits full stride. Americans are opting for road trips amid economic uncertainty and low pump prices, pushing gasoline demand to its highest since December 2021, according to the EIA. Crude inventories fell by 5.8 million barrels last week, dropping to 11-year seasonal lows, as refineries ramped up fuel production. Refineries are now processing the most crude in six years for this time of year, tightening oil balances. Gasoline inventories remain below the five-year average. Meanwhile, markets shift focus to US-China trade progress and the upcoming July 6 OPEC+ meeting, with markets expecting another big quota hike.

US Gasoline Futures Hover at 3-Week Low

Wheat futures rose to near $5.24 per bushel, recovering slightly from recent over one-month lows amid improving global sentiment driven by US-China trade progress and a steady Middle East ceasefire. However, the well-paced US harvest and rising expectations for Russian output kept the focus on ample global supply. The IKAR agriculture consultancy said on June 26 that it had raised its 2025 Russian wheat production forecast to 84.5 million metric tons from 83.8 million. At the same time, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said that last week's dry weather in most of Argentina boosted 2025-26 wheat planting, following heavy rains in May. Meanwhile, the International Grains Council (IGC) raised its 2025-26 world wheat crop outlook by 2 million tons to 808 million. The focus now shifted to the USDA’s June 30 crop and stock reports, with wheat inventories projected at 0.836 billion bushels, up from 0.696 billion a year earlier.

Wheat Rebounds Slightly

Platinum slumped about 6.8% to near $1,340 per ounce, pulling back from a 10-year high reached on June 26, as improving market sentiment reduced demand for safe-haven assets. Optimism over US-China trade talks and a holding ceasefire between Israel and Iran contributed to the decline. Still, platinum remains nearly 50% higher in 2025, driven by tight availability in hubs like London and Zurich. The World Platinum Investment Council forecasts a major supply shortfall of nearly 1 million ounces this year, mainly due to a 4% drop in global output, particularly from South African mines. Also, platinum is seeing growth in jewelry, especially in China and India. Investor interest is also rising, with the platinum-to-gold ratio still historically low. Additionally, platinum’s role in the hydrogen economy and fuel cell tech is tightening supply and supporting long-term bullish sentiment.

Platinum Falls Sharply After Hitting Decade High

Aluminum increased to a 13-week high of 2599.00 USD/T. Over the past 4 weeks, Aluminum gained 5.17%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 2.92%.

Aluminum Hits 13-week High

Oat increased to a 7-week high of 391.25 USd/Bu. Over the past 4 weeks, Oat gained 3.99%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 24.82%.

Oat Hits 7-week High

Gold fell over 1.5% to below $3,270 per ounce on Friday, heading for a 3% weekly decline, its second straight weekly loss, as easing geopolitical tensions and improving global trade prospects reduced demand for safe-haven assets. A fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran held, and US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said trade frameworks with China and other major partners were nearly finalized, reinforcing risk-on sentiment. Meanwhile, US data showed the core PCE index rose slightly above expectations but remained consistent with subdued inflation, boosting hopes for Fed rate cuts later this year. Consumer sentiment also jumped to a four-month high, and inflation expectations improved. Despite the recent dip, gold remains up over 25% year-to-date and is around $200 below its April record high, still supported by strong central bank buying and anticipation of Fed monetary easing.

Gold Extends Losses for 2nd Week

The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk sea freight index, which tracks rates for vessels transporting dry commodities, eased for the third day on Friday, dropping about 2.1% to a new low since June 4 at 1,521 points, pulled down by the bigger-size segment. The capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes such as iron ore and coal, slumped by 5.3% to 2,220 points. Meanwhile, the panamax index, which usually carries 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grain, rose 1.5% to 1,490 points, extending gains for a fifth day; and the supramax index added 9 points, or 0.9%, to 1,009 points. For the week, the benchmark index was down over 8%, notching its second consecutive decline.

Baltic Dry Index Up for 3rd Day, Still Posts Weekly Loss

US natural gas futures jumped about 5% to $3.7/MMBtu on Friday, snapping a five-day losing streak, as LNG export activity started to recover. Gas flows to the eight major US LNG plants averaged 14.2 bcfd in June, still below May’s 15 bcfd and April’s record 16 bcfd, but slightly higher than earlier in the month as some plants resumed operations after maintenance. Also, forecasters expect hotter-than-normal weather across the Lower 48 states through at least July 12, although temperatures likely won’t return to this week’s extreme highs. Supply-wise, gas output averaged 105.6 bcfd in June, up from 105.2 bcfd in May, but still below March’s record of 106.3 bcfd, mainly due to earlier spring pipeline maintenance. Meanwhile, after ten straight weeks of above-average injections into storage, analysts now expect smaller additions this week as utilities used more gas for power generation during the recent heat wave.

US Natgas Prices Snap 5-Day Losing Streak

Gold is down by 2.02%

Nuclear Energy Index increased to a 12-year high of 39.30 USD. Over the past 4 weeks, Nuclear Energy Index gained 17.84%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 35.29%.

Nuclear Energy Index Hits 12-year High

Gold decreased to a 4-week low of 3282.00 USD/t.oz. Over the past 4 weeks, Gold lost 0.09%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 41.13%.

Gold Hits 4-week Low

Gold declined toward $3,280 per ounce on Friday, hitting its lowest level in four weeks, as fading geopolitical risks and easing fears of a prolonged trade conflict dented safe-haven demand. The US and China finalized the details of their London trade deal, which will implement the Geneva consensus. Under the agreement, China will approve export applications for controlled goods, while the US will lift various trade restrictions. This followed the White House downplaying the urgency of upcoming tariff deadlines, suggesting they could be extended and further easing trade concerns. Meanwhile, investors continued to assess the Fed’s rate cut outlook, with reports indicating President Trump may announce his Fed Chair nominee as early as September or October, likely favoring a candidate supportive of looser financial conditions. Markets now await the PCE inflation report later today for further direction. The bullion is on track for its second consecutive weekly loss.

Gold Hits 4-Week Low

Iron ore futures rose to around CNY 718 per tonne on Friday, reaching a one-month high as falling inventories and supportive macro signals boosted sentiment. Industry data showed total iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports dropped to 133.6 million tons, while steel inventories declined for the seventh straight week. Renewed steel production curbs in China also lent support to prices following a recent pullback. Market participants are now looking ahead to the upcoming July Politburo meeting for potential signs of stronger policy stimulus from Beijing. Meanwhile, the US dollar sank to a 3½-year low on growing expectations of deeper Federal Reserve rate cuts. A weaker dollar makes dollar-priced commodities like iron ore more attractive to holders of other currencies, further supporting demand.

Iron Ore Rises on Falling Inventories, Stimulus Hopes

Silver prices held firm above $36.5 per ounce on Friday after rising for two straight sessions, underpinned by a weakening dollar amid bets on deeper Federal Reserve rate cuts. Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a dovish tone during recent congressional testimony, suggesting that without inflationary pressures from tariffs, the central bank would likely have resumed monetary easing. President Donald Trump may also announce his pick for the next Fed Chair as early as September or October—potentially installing a "shadow" chair to influence a more dovish direction. On the trade front, investor sentiment improved after the White House downplayed the urgency of upcoming tariff deadlines, easing fears of an extended trade conflict. Beyond macro drivers, silver remains supported by strong industrial demand and ongoing supply constraints. The metal has significantly outperformed gold in June, rising roughly 11% compared to gold’s flat performance.

Silver Firms on Dovish Fed Signals

Copper futures rose above $5 per pound on Friday, gaining roughly 6% for the week, as traders redirected shipments toward the US to get ahead of potential tariffs, causing a supply squeeze in the global market. Since the Trump administration launched a probe into copper imports in February, around 400 kilotons have been rushed into the US to get ahead of possible levies. This diversion has tightened global supply, prompting traders to withdraw metal from LME warehouses and triggering sharp backwardation in the futures curve. On-warrant inventories have plunged 80% year-to-date, with tom/next spreads widening to $40 per tonne. Adding to the bullish sentiment are easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, reduced fears of reciprocal tariffs, expectations of further stimulus from China, and a more dovish Federal Reserve—all supporting the outlook for global demand.

Copper Extends Rally on Tight Supply

Gold fell to around $3,320 per ounce on Friday, extending recent losses despite a subdued dollar, as investors continued to assess the Fed’s rate cut outlook. Reports indicate President Trump may announce his Fed Chair nominee as early as September or October, likely favoring a candidate supportive of looser financial conditions. Fed Chair Powell, for his part, noted that the absence of new tariffs supports disinflation, creating room for multiple rate cuts if aggressive levies are held off beyond the July 9 deadline. On the data front, US GDP was revised to show a 0.5% contraction in Q2, further supporting dovish expectations, though this was offset by jobless claims falling to a five-week low and durable goods orders posting their biggest gain in 11 years. Markets now await the PCE inflation report due today for further direction. Elsewhere, fading risks in the Middle East reduced demand for safe-haven assets. For the week, bullion is on track for its second consecutive weekly loss.

Gold Extends Losses

Brent crude oil futures rose for a third straight session to around $68 per barrel on Friday but remained on track for its worst week since March 2023, following a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Oil prices swung within a $15-per-barrel range this week, surging on Monday after the US bombed Iranian nuclear sites, then easing after President Trump announced a ceasefire, soothing fears of supply disruptions from the region. Since then, Trump has sent mixed signals about his pressure campaign on Iran’s oil revenues, admitting US sanctions have done little to stop China’s purchases. Meanwhile, rising fuel demand amid the US summer driving season is supporting prices, with crude inventories hitting an 11-year seasonal low. A subdued dollar also helped cushion losses by making the dollar-denominated commodity less expensive. Investors have now shifted focus to progress in US-China trade talks, as well as the July 6 OPEC meeting.

Brent Set for Worst Week in Over 2 Years

WTI crude oil futures rose for a third straight session toward $66 per barrel on Friday but remained on track for its worst week since March 2023, following a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Oil prices swung within a $15-per-barrel range this week, surging on Monday after the US bombed Iranian nuclear sites, then easing after President Trump announced a ceasefire, soothing fears of supply disruptions from the region. Since then, Trump has sent mixed signals about his pressure campaign on Iran’s oil revenues, admitting US sanctions have done little to stop China’s purchases. Meanwhile, rising fuel demand amid the US summer driving season is supporting prices, with crude inventories hitting an 11-year seasonal low. A subdued dollar also helped cushion losses by making the dollar-denominated commodity less expensive. Investors have now shifted focus to progress in US-China trade talks, as well as the July 6 OPEC meeting.

Oil Set for Worst Week in Over 2 Years

Rice futures fell below $13 per hundredweight, their weakest since mid-May, as bumper crops from top exporters flooded the market. India’s monsoon-boosted harvest is forecast at a record 146 million tonnes with state stocks at 59.5 million tonnes, prompting New Delhi to divert 5.2 million tonnes into ethanol and open up supplies for export. Thailand’s intervention reserves and regular government auctions have driven its 5% broken grade down to $397 per tonne while Vietnam’s exporters, despite seeking new buyers in China, have seen offers fall to $387 per tonne amid sluggish global demand. In the United States an early near-ideal harvest and USDA estimates of 14 million tonnes of rough rice have raised prospects of ample carryover stocks, and China’s pullback from large-scale purchases has removed a key support for prices.

Rice Drops to over 1-Month Low

Cotton futures hovered around 64 cents per pound, near April lows as a surge in global supply increasingly overwhelms tepid demand. In Brazil, the 2024 / 25 harvest is unfolding on record acreage, with Conab estimating a 3.9 Mt crop and Cepea reporting that 4% of the area was harvested by June 21st, prompting sellers to offload left-over 2023 / 24 lint at ever-lower levels—down 5.7 % so far in June to R$ 4.1655 / lb. Externally, US cotton stocks remain heavy despite recent draws in refined product feeds, while Secex data show Brazilian exports down 11% daily in June and 16 % year-on-year in May. Meanwhile, weak textile demand in China, competition from synthetics and a softer lint dollar have all combined to pressure prices further.

Cotton Remains Subdued

Palladium futures rose to over $1,135 per ounce in June, the highest since October 2024, driven by a weaker dollar, supply concerns, and increased investor interest in precious metals as a hedge against economic uncertainties. Production remains under pressure, especially in Russia and South Africa. In the meantime, demand remains solid, driven by the automotive sector and the growth of the jewelry market in Asia. In addition, cautious comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and expectations of a dovish Chairperson to be nominated by Trump this year have reinforced bets on a more accommodative monetary policy, which tends to favor non-interest-bearing assets such as palladium. The squeeze was magnified by the depletion of platinum metals in London and Zurich as metals moves to the US before eventual tariffs.

Palladium Rises to 8-Month High

US gasoline futures rebounded to about $2.11 per gallon after sliding below $2.10 yesterday on news of a US-brokered Israel–Iran ceasefire that eased worries over Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Latest EIA figures reveal a 2.075 million-barrel draw in US gasoline stocks for the week ending June 20th, the largest since last November, while refinery output ticked down, tightening supply. At the same time, US crude inventories tumbled by 5.84 million barrels, bolstering feedstock costs. Although the ceasefire has held, sporadic tensions and Iran’s threat to suspend cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog continue to limit downturns. A softer dollar amid growing Fed rate-cut expectations has further lent support by lowering the relative cost of refined products in global markets.

Gasoline Rebounds on Tight Supply

Platinum futures climbed toward $1,400 per ounce in late June, supported by a weaker US dollar and renewed investor demand. Gold also edged higher amid uncertainty following reports that President Trump may replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell as early as September or October. The platinum-to-gold ratio remains historically low, allowing investors to shift capital from gold to platinum with greater leverage. BMO Capital Markets expects strong momentum to continue, forecasting platinum to reach $1,500 by year-end—about 10% above current levels.

Platinum Extends Rally Near $1,400

Palladium increased 5.04% to 1126 USD/t.oz

Palladium is up by 5.04%

TTF Gas decreased to a 7-week low of 33.73 EUR/MWh. Over the past 4 weeks, Natural Gas EU Dutch TTF lost 8.64%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 1.36%.

TTF Gas Hits 7-week Low

European natural gas futures fell to €34 per megawatt-hour, the lowest in four weeks, due to strong supply, weak demand, and easing geopolitical tensions. A ceasefire between Israel and Iran appears to be holding, reducing fears of supply disruptions. Norwegian gas exports to Europe have increased, while demand from power plants has dropped as wind and solar output remain well above seasonal norms. This has further eased pressure on gas markets, though renewable generation is expected to return to normal next week. Additionally, gas send-out from north-west Europe may decline as French LNG terminals undergo planned maintenance. Meanwhile, Slovakia has threatened to block a new EU sanctions package on Russia unless concerns over post-2027 gas supplies are addressed, adding a political twist to Europe's energy outlook.

TTF Prices Fall to 4-Week Low

US natural gas futures fell toward $3.42/MMBtu, the lowest in five weeks, pressured by rising production and a larger-than-expected storage build. According to the EIA, US utilities added 96 billion cubic feet of gas to storage in the week ending June 20, marking the 10th consecutive week of above-average injections. Average output in the Lower 48 states increased to 105.5 bcfd in June, up from 105.2 bcfd in May, supporting ample supply. Despite forecasts for continued hotter-than-normal weather over the next two weeks, temperatures are expected to ease from this week’s peak heat. Additionally, gas flows to the eight major US LNG export terminals have declined to 14.1 bcfd so far in June, down from 15.0 bcfd in May.

US Natgas Prices Fall to 5-Week Low

Gold erased earlier gains to hover at $3,320 per ounce, despite a weaker dollar, as markets continued to assess the magnitude of rate cuts that the Federal Reserve may deliver this year. US President Trump noted the new Fed Chairperson could be announced as early as September, reducing Chairman Powell's influence before his term expires and strengthening the influence of the incoming nominee. Trump is expected to favor a dovish central banker due to the President's call for lower rates, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest bearing bullion assets. Meanwhile, Powell reiterated that the Fed's current consensus is that tariffs are expected to inflationary, adding attention to July 9th's deadline for reciprocal tariffs to be reintroduced. Elsewhere, rate cuts were delivered by the ECB, BoE, PBoC, RBI, and SNB. On the geopolitical front, the apparent de-escalation in conflict between Iran and Israel prevented a sharper increase for bullion.

Gold Pares Gains

Brent crude oil futures rose over 1% to near $68.5 per barrel on Thursday, as markets weighed mixed signals on US-Iran tensions and future supply risks. Despite US airstrikes, reports suggest Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile remains mostly intact, while Tehran passed a law suspending cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog. President Trump denied claims Iran moved nuclear material ahead of strikes and insisted the conflict is “over,” though he vowed to keep targeting Iran’s oil revenue. Oil had earlier plunged this week on hopes the Israel-Iran ceasefire would hold. Focus now shifts to the July 6 OPEC+ meeting, where Russia may support a production hike if needed. Trump also admitted sanctions haven't stopped China from buying Iranian oil. Meanwhile, US crude inventories dropped by 5.84 million barrels, hitting an 11-year seasonal low, and Cushing stockpiles also declined for the third straight week.

Brent Crude Oil Rises for 2nd Session

WTI crude oil futures rose over 1% to near $66 per barrel on Thursday, as markets weighed mixed signals on US-Iran tensions and future supply risks. Despite US airstrikes, reports suggest Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile remains mostly intact, while Tehran passed a law suspending cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog. President Trump denied claims Iran moved nuclear material ahead of strikes and insisted the conflict is “over,” though he vowed to keep targeting Iran’s oil revenue. Oil had earlier plunged this week on hopes the Israel-Iran ceasefire would hold. Focus now shifts to the July 6 OPEC+ meeting, where Russia may support a production hike if needed. Trump also admitted sanctions haven't stopped China from buying Iranian oil. Meanwhile, US crude inventories dropped by 5.84 million barrels, hitting an 11-year seasonal low, and Cushing stockpiles also declined for the third straight week.

Oil Rises for 2nd Session

Rice decreased to a 4-week low of 13.10 USD/cwt. Over the past 4 weeks, Rice lost 1.24%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 21.49%.

Rice Hits 4-week Low

Sugar decreased to a 4-year low of 15.58 USd/Lbs. Over the past 4 weeks, Sugar lost 9.56%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 22.37%.

Sugar Hits 4-year Low

Lumber increased to a 12-week high of 634.00 USD/1000 board feet. Over the past 4 weeks, Lumber gained 4.46%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 34.6%.

Lumber Hits 12-week High

Aluminum futures rose toward $2,580 per tonne in June, testing the highest level since the March as risks to raw material supply were combined with bets that manufacturing demand will remain robust this year. Uncertainty on the global supply of bauxite persisted amid the Guinean government's disagreements with Emirates Global Aluminum's mining operations in the country, jeopardizing mining licences from one of the worlds largest providers of the raw material. This was magnified by limited exports out of Guinea during May, driving imports from China to fall 21% from the previous month and forcing the world's top aluminum producer to buy raw materials from elsewhere. A sharper increase was prevented by the increase in open tonnage in LME inventories this year, despite the risk of squeezes by the large positions taken by Mercuria. In turn, base metals were broadly supported by a softer US dollar and expectations that China will continue to stimulate its consumption base.

Aluminum Rises Toward 3-Month High

Brent crude futures trimmed earlier gains to trade largely flat around $68 per barrel on Thursday, holding below levels seen on June 12th when Israel attacked on Iran, as markets seek stability. The ceasefire between Israel and Iran is holding, and initial fears of a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz or significant damage to regional oil infrastructure eased. However, US President Trump reaffirmed that pressure on Iranian oil exports will continue, and announced that the US will hold talks with Iran next week. Meanwhile, the oil market remains well supplied. OPEC has significantly increased output in recent months, and US shale producers are maintaining production at record highs despite robust demand. The latest EIA data showed US crude inventories fell by 5.8 million barrels while stockpiles at Cushing dropped to their lowest level since February. Market focus is now turning to the OPEC+ meeting on July 6, where production policy for August will be set.

Brent Prices Little Changed

WTI crude futures trimmed earlier gains to trade largely flat around $64.8 per barrel on Thursday, holding below levels seen on June 12th when Israel attacked on Iran, as markets seek stability. The ceasefire between Israel and Iran is holding, and initial fears of a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz or significant damage to regional oil infrastructure eased. However, US President Trump reaffirmed that pressure on Iranian oil exports will continue, and announced that the US will hold talks with Iran next week. Meanwhile, the oil market remains well supplied. OPEC has significantly increased output in recent months, and US shale producers are maintaining production at record highs despite robust demand. The latest EIA data showed US crude inventories fell by 5.8 million barrels while stockpiles at Cushing dropped to their lowest level since February. Market focus is now turning to the OPEC+ meeting on July 6, where production policy for August will be set.

Oil Prices Steady

Gold rose past $3,340 per ounce on Thursday, aligned with the aggressive decline for the US dollar amid fresh dovish signs for the Federal Reserve. US President Trump noted he could announce the new Fed Chairman as early as September of October, reducing Chairman Powell's influence before his term expires in June and strengthening the influence of the incoming nominee. Trump is expected to favor a dovish central banker due to the President's call for lower rates, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest bearing. Also on the monetary front, Chairman Powell noted that a backdrop with softer tariffs than those announced in April are expected to be disinflationary by the Fed, favoring an outlook that drives the FOMC to loosen financial conditions. Elsewhere, rate cuts were delivered by the ECB, BoE, PBoC, RBI, and SNB. On the geopolitical front, the apparent de-escalation in conflict between Iran and Israel prevented a sharper increase for bullion.

Gold Holds Increase

Copper increased to a 12-week high of 5.04 USD/Lbs. Over the past 4 weeks, Copper gained 6.75%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 15.84%.

Copper Hits 12-week High

Copper futures rose past the $5 per pound threshold on Thursday, testing the highest in three months as the risk of tariffs on the material by US President Trump drove traders to move metal between exchanges and trigger supply squeezes in key storage centers. The US President maintained the probe against copper imports to prelude eventual tariffs, pressuring the outlook of domestic supply due to the limited smelting and processing capacity. Consequently, traders moved copper out of LME houses and triggered an aggressive backwardation in the futures curve, driving on-warrant inventory to plunge 80% this year tom/next spreads to $40 per tonne. In the meantime, softer concerns of reciprocal tariffs by the US, lower geopolitical tension in the Middle East, expectations of stimulus by the Chinese government and monetary easing by the Federal Reserve all contributed to a softer dollar and an improved outlook for global manufacturing demand.

Copper Rises to Test 3-Month High

Iron ore futures declined to around CNY 700 per tonne on Thursday, marking a one-week low as supply from major exporters surged. Shipments to China from top producers Australia and Brazil jumped to 30.1 million tonnes last week—the highest weekly total so far this year, according to industry data. Brazilian miner Vale ramped up exports in an end-of-season push, while Australia’s Rio Tinto secured final government approval for its Hope Downs 2 project, a joint venture with Hancock Prospecting. The new mine is expected to produce 31 million tonnes annually, further boosting global supply. On the demand side, global steel production fell 3.8% year-on-year in May, according to the World Steel Association, reflecting continued weakness in construction and manufacturing activity.

Iron Ore Falls to 1-Week Low on Rising Supply

Silver prices held firm above $36.20 per ounce on Thursday after gaining nearly 1% in the previous session, as a weaker dollar and falling Treasury yields continued to support the metal. The move comes amid growing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts following dovish signals from Chair Jerome Powell. Powell reiterated on Wednesday that interest rates should remain on hold due to inflation risks linked to the Trump administration’s tariffs, but suggested the Fed would have likely continued easing in their absence. On the geopolitical front, US officials prepare to meet with their Iranian counterparts next week and the Iran-Israel ceasefire remains intact. In addition to macro tailwinds, silver benefited from firm industrial demand and lingering supply constraints. The metal has notably outperformed gold in June, gaining around 10% compared to gold’s more than 1% rise.

Silver Holds Gains Amid Weaker Dollar, Treasury Yields

Copper futures climbed above $4.94 per pound on Thursday, hitting a three-week high amid tightening global inventories. Since the Trump administration launched an investigation into copper imports in February, approximately 400 kilotons have been rushed into the US in anticipation of potential tariffs. This surge has pushed US inventories to over 100 days' worth of consumption, while contributing to shortages in other markets. London Metal Exchange copper stockpiles have plunged more than 63% year-to-date, falling to just 99,000 metric tons. Despite lingering economic and policy uncertainties, Chinese copper demand has remained resilient. On the geopolitical front, sentiment was further supported by easing tensions in the Middle East, as US officials prepare to meet with Iranian counterparts next week and the ceasefire between Iran and Israel appears to be holding.

Breaking News

Follow what's happening with real-time updates from around the world.